Apologies, I didn't get a chance to watch the last half of the video. Weren't these the guys that were touting the tech years ago on the pseudoscience TY channels like Cold Fusion etc? All great but they hit the inevitable tritium problem?
Until it happens I’ll continue believing that it’s impossible for humans to do. We live really close to a star, find better ways to harness that energy.
Question everything, go back and verify everything, don't take the consensus as the rule nor the mob as the authority. I think your are doing a good job offering up your point of view and your informed questions.
Even if they deliver a working prototype in 2035, it takes years to turn that into an actual functional design, and then you have to start building enough of them to power the planet. It’ll be 2050 before they can have any measurable impact, assuming everything goes perfectly. And the track record for things going well and staying on time and on budget is abysmal.
The last coal fired Powerstation built in Australia was Bluewaters Power Station. Construction began in 1979 and it was commissioned in 2009. Which for the people up the back is 30 years. The owners immediately went bankrupt and none have been built since. But somehow we're going to build a Powerstation based on technology we haven't invented yet in 8 years. I need a face more sceptical than number 2.
Thank you for looking into these nuclear fusion energy hype presentations. The experiments began in the 1950's and since then have been consistently oversold to attract funding to these fun projects. The sales pitchers have become masters at misrepresentations and at omitting key evaluation details, typically with the excuse that much of that is too complex for the audiences that they are trying to attract. They tend to be consistent with not including the energy, needed to power their experimental facilities, when calculating the fusion energy gain. Most of these devices operate in a pulsed mode and their 'input energy' parameter typically only applies to the short period of time the fusion reaction is actually occurring. In the case of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) 12/05/2022 'breakeven' laser shot over 100 times more energy was used to power the lasers than the energy value that they employed to calculate the fusion energy gain. Since that experiment took about a week to prepare the total energy consumed, by the facility was much greater than that needed to pump the lasers. The ICF fusion reaction lasted for only 0.000,000,000,08 second. There was limited propagation of the reaction before the vast majority of the fuel was blasted away from the reaction center. The use of the term 'ignition' by these experimenters is misleading. Typically the reaction fails to consume much of the supplied expensive fuel.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) is over 50% of the way through its construction of their SPARC experimental machine that they often refer to as a 'prototype' of their planned ARC power plant. SPARC doesn't come anywhere close to being a prototype. It lacks over 80% of the components of such a plant including a robust heat removal system and all the other downstream components required of an electrical generating station. It also lacks a tritium breading blanket, as well as a lithium-6 enrichment facility and tritium purification system. SPARC is limited to 10-second maximum pulses and then will require four-hours of thermal recovery time before another full-power fusion power pulse can be attempted. This means its fusion energy duty cycle will be a maximum of 0.0007, many orders of magnitude less than will be required of the ARC power plant.
Helion Energy (HE) has been experimenting with its 7th generation experimental machine, Polaris, for over a year. Near the end of 2024 they announced that they expected it to be generating electrical energy by mid-2025. They have released no details regarding its operation, but seem more interested in creating diversionary videos. The numerous schemes that employ inertial confinement fusion approaches tend to not mention how long they expect the fusion reactions to last, or the percentage of supplied fuel that they are likely to consume before the reaction extinguishes itself. Typically, the reactions last under a nanosecond and the fusion energy duty cycle is minuscule.
First Light (FL) hast gone through at least three interactions of its designs since it began with its gas gun approach. My guess is each time design faults are exposed they creatively come up with another hypothetical plan. Their listing of advantages over other machines contained numerous inaccuracies and exaggerations. The ITER project has never intended to eventually generate commercial power. It has always been intended as an experimental machine that may solve some problems required before future experimental machines are created, such as DEMO.
Start-up companies, such as CFS, HE and FL, never mention that they haven't ever generated even a single watt-hour's worth of fusion energy, in their frequent pitches for funding and public support. Typically, the fan have no interest in posing deep, probing questions, to the people who they have come to idolize.
Sabine was correct regarding the way these nuclear energy promoters employ the fear of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption and now, increasingly, the need to power AI processing data centers, as a tool to promote their favorite technologies.
— Virtually all nuclear energy promoters, are in line with the vast majority of Earth's other 8.2+ billion humans, who continue to assume that we still have at least 20 years left to turn this 'Titanic' around using their favorite nuclear technology. They have become masterful in excluding the following warnings from their consciousness.
UN chief: World has less than 2 years to avoid 'runaway climate change' (TheHill) * This statement was made 7.0 years ago.
It's been 5 years away for the last 50 years straight, maybe longer… 😂🙄 Biggest snakeoil scam in history… To the tune of trillions in "research funding," over-promising, under-delivering…
your economist sponsor ia pro israel, pro genocide holocaust, killing children and innocent for fun, for not being jewish, so u are a commplice , i cant believe in you anymore, bye
Cold Fusion? Schwinger didn't dismiss it but gave us a mechanism of how it could work. Of course he was ostracized and his papers not published. I don't think there's fortunes to be made in Cold Fusion, only benefits.
I keep hearing that they managed to add 1, 2, 10 minutes to the fusion process before it burns out the equipment. And then they promise to get it done in a couple years. But last I heard, an energy plant needs to run 24/7 365 with only a few stops to be repaired each year.
I think the problem is the government officials. Fusion was making huge strides in the 80s and if we kept that pace we'd probably have it by now. Instead, governments got involved and turned it into these massive bureaucratised vanity projects like ITER, and actual progress ground to a crawl.
A simple question: a nuclear power station, be it a real one based on fission or a (very) imaginary one based on fusion, is a type of thermal power station. This means monsieur Carnot puts a severe limit to its total efficiency, and even approaching it is a big challenge. So any nuclear power station does, and will always, generate a huge amount of waste heat. Typically for 1 kWh of electricity, 2 kWh of heat are added to the Earth’ air and water.
Given that global warming is the problem we are urgently trying to solve, why are we making it even worse scaling up the use of nuclear energy ?
There is one thing that will inevitably slow down additional greenhouse gas emissions: dwindling oil reserves. As the readily-available oil reserves are consumed, the oil which remains to be extracted becomes increasingly expensive. Economic forces dictate that alternatives to burning oil will become more attractive as that moment approaches. I am curious as to how much more global temperatures are expected to rise before the end of cheap abundant oil, and if we can reasonably expect that this will not lead to the end of human civilization.
Why don't we pile all this money into thorium reactors instead? We know they can actually be built, so we'd just be refining technology we know already works.
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That shirt and hairdo should referred to the ICC in the Hague.
mmmmm, Sounds like another Elon FSD Promise.
But don't trust the economist when it comes to geopolitics, that is purely US-British propaganda
Sabine is the only valid voice of reason in the new grifter world of physicist
🎶Money money money, 🎶is so funny, 🎶when the government spends it…🎶
I visited one start-up in Virginia had a tour. I am not going to live long enough to see it work probably
Apologies, I didn't get a chance to watch the last half of the video. Weren't these the guys that were touting the tech years ago on the pseudoscience TY channels like Cold Fusion etc? All great but they hit the inevitable tritium problem?
Until it happens I’ll continue believing that it’s impossible for humans to do. We live really close to a star, find better ways to harness that energy.
5 years away for the past 40 years. As soon as you mentioned Sam Altman I knew this was BS.
We are paid to look for solutions – not to find them.
Question everything, go back and verify everything, don't take the consensus as the rule nor the mob as the authority. I think your are doing a good job offering up your point of view and your informed questions.
Tri Alpha energy and Helion has fusion tech now. Ashton Forbes seems to know more about this than you. Do better
Why do you add annoying sound affects in your video
Even if they deliver a working prototype in 2035, it takes years to turn that into an actual functional design, and then you have to start building enough of them to power the planet. It’ll be 2050 before they can have any measurable impact, assuming everything goes perfectly. And the track record for things going well and staying on time and on budget is abysmal.
The last coal fired Powerstation built in Australia was Bluewaters Power Station. Construction began in 1979 and it was commissioned in 2009. Which for the people up the back is 30 years. The owners immediately went bankrupt and none have been built since. But somehow we're going to build a Powerstation based on technology we haven't invented yet in 8 years. I need a face more sceptical than number 2.
Let’s be honest, it’s 30 years away and will be for the next 100 years.
Thank you for looking into these nuclear fusion energy hype presentations. The experiments began in the 1950's and since then have been consistently oversold to attract funding to these fun projects. The sales pitchers have become masters at misrepresentations and at omitting key evaluation details, typically with the excuse that much of that is too complex for the audiences that they are trying to attract. They tend to be consistent with not including the energy, needed to power their experimental facilities, when calculating the fusion energy gain. Most of these devices operate in a pulsed mode and their 'input energy' parameter typically only applies to the short period of time the fusion reaction is actually occurring. In the case of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) 12/05/2022 'breakeven' laser shot over 100 times more energy was used to power the lasers than the energy value that they employed to calculate the fusion energy gain. Since that experiment took about a week to prepare the total energy consumed, by the facility was much greater than that needed to pump the lasers. The ICF fusion reaction lasted for only 0.000,000,000,08 second. There was limited propagation of the reaction before the vast majority of the fuel was blasted away from the reaction center. The use of the term 'ignition' by these experimenters is misleading. Typically the reaction fails to consume much of the supplied expensive fuel.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) is over 50% of the way through its construction of their SPARC experimental machine that they often refer to as a 'prototype' of their planned ARC power plant. SPARC doesn't come anywhere close to being a prototype. It lacks over 80% of the components of such a plant including a robust heat removal system and all the other downstream components required of an electrical generating station. It also lacks a tritium breading blanket, as well as a lithium-6 enrichment facility and tritium purification system. SPARC is limited to 10-second maximum pulses and then will require four-hours of thermal recovery time before another full-power fusion power pulse can be attempted. This means its fusion energy duty cycle will be a maximum of 0.0007, many orders of magnitude less than will be required of the ARC power plant.
Helion Energy (HE) has been experimenting with its 7th generation experimental machine, Polaris, for over a year. Near the end of 2024 they announced that they expected it to be generating electrical energy by mid-2025. They have released no details regarding its operation, but seem more interested in creating diversionary videos. The numerous schemes that employ inertial confinement fusion approaches tend to not mention how long they expect the fusion reactions to last, or the percentage of supplied fuel that they are likely to consume before the reaction extinguishes itself. Typically, the reactions last under a nanosecond and the fusion energy duty cycle is minuscule.
First Light (FL) hast gone through at least three interactions of its designs since it began with its gas gun approach. My guess is each time design faults are exposed they creatively come up with another hypothetical plan. Their listing of advantages over other machines contained numerous inaccuracies and exaggerations. The ITER project has never intended to eventually generate commercial power. It has always been intended as an experimental machine that may solve some problems required before future experimental machines are created, such as DEMO.
Start-up companies, such as CFS, HE and FL, never mention that they haven't ever generated even a single watt-hour's worth of fusion energy, in their frequent pitches for funding and public support. Typically, the fan have no interest in posing deep, probing questions, to the people who they have come to idolize.
Sabine was correct regarding the way these nuclear energy promoters employ the fear of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption and now, increasingly, the need to power AI processing data centers, as a tool to promote their favorite technologies.
—
Virtually all nuclear energy promoters, are in line with the vast majority of Earth's other 8.2+ billion humans, who continue to assume that we still have at least 20 years left to turn this 'Titanic' around using their favorite nuclear technology. They have become masterful in excluding the following warnings from their consciousness.
UN chief: World has less than 2 years to avoid 'runaway climate change' (TheHill)
* This statement was made 7.0 years ago.
Even if we had unlimited, free clean energy would that actually fix anything or just make things worse?
CON-FUSION
It's been 5 years away for the last 50 years straight, maybe longer… 😂🙄 Biggest snakeoil scam in history… To the tune of trillions in "research funding," over-promising, under-delivering…
your economist sponsor ia pro israel, pro genocide holocaust, killing children and innocent for fun, for not being jewish, so u are a commplice , i cant believe in you anymore, bye
Free beer tomorrow.
Perhaps if we focused on time travel we could catch up with that forever receding 5 years.🥱 I know! AI time travel!
Cold Fusion?
Schwinger didn't dismiss it but gave us a mechanism of how it could work. Of course he was ostracized and his papers not published. I don't think there's fortunes to be made in Cold Fusion, only benefits.
I keep hearing that they managed to add 1, 2, 10 minutes to the fusion process before it burns out the equipment.
And then they promise to get it done in a couple years.
But last I heard, an energy plant needs to run 24/7 365 with only a few stops to be repaired each year.
That shit has been 5 years away for the last 60 years.
… Without trying and some loses there can't be a progress …sometimes you have to get your hands dirty. Theory can't go that far.
As a recovering particle physicist…🤣🤣🤣
I think the problem is the government officials. Fusion was making huge strides in the 80s and if we kept that pace we'd probably have it by now. Instead, governments got involved and turned it into these massive bureaucratised vanity projects like ITER, and actual progress ground to a crawl.
A simple question: a nuclear power station, be it a real one based on fission or a (very) imaginary one based on fusion, is a type of thermal power station. This means monsieur Carnot puts a severe limit to its total efficiency, and even approaching it is a big challenge. So any nuclear power station does, and will always, generate a huge amount of waste heat. Typically for 1 kWh of electricity, 2 kWh of heat are added to the Earth’ air and water.
Given that global warming is the problem we are urgently trying to solve, why are we making it even worse scaling up the use of nuclear energy ?
Recovering particle scientist- brilliant.
Mad. Deeply dishonest misallocation of capital that has nothing to do with capitalism. It will end in tears.
It's all a scam to bilk clueless wealthy investors. It's the same with quantum computing.
Yeah, nuclear fusion is only 5 light years away.
There is one thing that will inevitably slow down additional greenhouse gas emissions: dwindling oil reserves. As the readily-available oil reserves are consumed, the oil which remains to be extracted becomes increasingly expensive. Economic forces dictate that alternatives to burning oil will become more attractive as that moment approaches. I am curious as to how much more global temperatures are expected to rise before the end of cheap abundant oil, and if we can reasonably expect that this will not lead to the end of human civilization.
Why don't we pile all this money into thorium reactors instead? We know they can actually be built, so we'd just be refining technology we know already works.
A Fusion reactor by definition is not a power plant for civil supply